Observing Market Behaviour : Jobless claims
The Labour Force Survey, another report from Statistics Canada (www.
statscan.gc.ca), is one of the most important leading indicators to watch.
This report is the first critical economic indicator released every month
and frequently sets the expectations for the rest of the month’s reports. For
example, signs of a weak labour market reported in the Labour Force Survey
usually are a strong indication of poor retail sales and other possible negative
reports later in the month.
The summary also breaks down data by
industry, such as construction and manufacturing. For example, a significant
drop in employment numbers for the construction sector is a strong sign that
the housing starts report also will be negative.
This report can send shockwaves through the financial markets, especially
if the numbers that are released vary greatly from expectations. Stock prices
often fall whenever the report doesn’t meet expectations or employment statistics
show signs of weakness. On the other hand, stock prices can rise dramatically
whenever the report indicates better than expected numbers. As
is true with any shock to the market, changes in prices are temporary unless
other indicators also exhibit the same trend or tendency.
The employment report can drive markets so strongly because its data are
only a few days old. Because it is so timely, this report is widely recognized as
the best indicator of unemployment and wage pressure. Rising unemployment
can be an early sign of recession, while increased pressure on wages can be an
early sign of inflation. The report also is a broad-based snapshot of the entire
labour market, covering 50,000 Canadian households and every major industry.
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on the first Friday of
each month with data for the previous month. The two key parts of the
report that traders need to watch are :-
✓ Unemployment and new jobs created
✓ Average weekly hours worked and average earnings
In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (www.bls.gov)
produces the quaintly named Employment Situation Summary.
Another employment indicator traders like to watch is the Employment
Cost Index (ECI). It’s especially relevant during actual times of inflation or
when fear exists that an inflationary period may be imminent. The ECI is a
quarterly survey of employer payrolls that tracks movement in the cost of
labour, including wages, benefits, and bonuses. Wages and benefits make up
75 percent of the index. The BLS surveys more than 3,000 private-sector firms
and 500 local governments in the United States to develop the index. The ECI,
which reports data from the previous quarter, is released on the last business
day in January, April, July, and October.
The Labour Force Survey, another report from Statistics Canada (www.
statscan.gc.ca), is one of the most important leading indicators to watch.
This report is the first critical economic indicator released every month
and frequently sets the expectations for the rest of the month’s reports. For
example, signs of a weak labour market reported in the Labour Force Survey
usually are a strong indication of poor retail sales and other possible negative
reports later in the month.
The summary also breaks down data by
industry, such as construction and manufacturing. For example, a significant
drop in employment numbers for the construction sector is a strong sign that
the housing starts report also will be negative.
This report can send shockwaves through the financial markets, especially
if the numbers that are released vary greatly from expectations. Stock prices
often fall whenever the report doesn’t meet expectations or employment statistics
show signs of weakness. On the other hand, stock prices can rise dramatically
whenever the report indicates better than expected numbers. As
is true with any shock to the market, changes in prices are temporary unless
other indicators also exhibit the same trend or tendency.
The employment report can drive markets so strongly because its data are
only a few days old. Because it is so timely, this report is widely recognized as
the best indicator of unemployment and wage pressure. Rising unemployment
can be an early sign of recession, while increased pressure on wages can be an
early sign of inflation. The report also is a broad-based snapshot of the entire
labour market, covering 50,000 Canadian households and every major industry.
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on the first Friday of
each month with data for the previous month. The two key parts of the
report that traders need to watch are :-
✓ Unemployment and new jobs created
✓ Average weekly hours worked and average earnings
In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (www.bls.gov)
produces the quaintly named Employment Situation Summary.
Another employment indicator traders like to watch is the Employment
Cost Index (ECI). It’s especially relevant during actual times of inflation or
when fear exists that an inflationary period may be imminent. The ECI is a
quarterly survey of employer payrolls that tracks movement in the cost of
labour, including wages, benefits, and bonuses. Wages and benefits make up
75 percent of the index. The BLS surveys more than 3,000 private-sector firms
and 500 local governments in the United States to develop the index. The ECI,
which reports data from the previous quarter, is released on the last business
day in January, April, July, and October.
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